Pues tuve la duda sobre si PokerStars responde TODAS las preguntas que les hacen.
Así que decidí hacer una pregunta de un ejercicio de probabilidad que tengo en la uni.
Les envié este pequeño ejercicio.
>Hello,
>
>I'm having a tough time right now, so i am asking for some
>support from you.
>
>This is my question.
>
>In a crime at UNC Chapel Hill, it is determined that the
>perpetrator is a student who was wearing Duke sweatpants and a
>Carolina sweatshirt. A student is arrested who was wearing both
>of these items of clothing on the evening of the crime.
>The defense provides evidence that shows the probability that a
>randomly selected student in Chapel Hill is wearing Duke
>sweatpants is 1/10, and the probability that a randomly selected
>student in Chapel Hill is wearing a Carolina sweatshirt is 1/5.
>The prosecutor concludes that the probability that a student is
>wearing both Duke sweatpants and a Carolina sweatshirt is
>(1/10)(1/5) = 1/50 = 2%, which is large enough to cause
>reasonable doubt for the jury.
>
>So,
>Do you think the prosecuter's claim about the probability is
>true or false? Assuming the 1/10 and 1/5 are accurate
>probabilities.
>
>Please help me Stars, this answer will help me define if i
>become a lawyer or i will better look for a job.
>
>Regards.
La respuesta:
Hello Juan,
Thank you for your email and for your interesting question
although I am sorry to hear that you are having a tough time.
I am little confused because you say that the "prosecutor
concludes" that the probability is 2% but you then go on to say
that this is large enough for the jury to conclude "reasonable
doubt". If the purpose of the exercise is to leave open the
possibility of reasonable doubt then surely it would be the
defence making this argument rather than the prosecutor, who is
evidently convinced of the defendant's guilt (otherwise why would
they be trying the case?).
My confusion aside the calculation you have outlined appears to
me to be correct. Assuming for the sake of the argument that it
is actually possible to calculate the likelihood that a student
is wearing either of these pieces of clothing (I'm not sure it
would actually be possible myself), your calculation seems fair.
[On the other hand, I discussed this case with my colleague and
he disagreed pointing out that the items of clothing you
mentioned represent opposing sporting teams. This would mean
there would be even less likelihood that a student would be
wearing those exact items of clothing, which would appear to
strengthen the prosecutor's argument.]
In any case, it seems to me if the prosecutor is going to such
great lengths to demonstrate the "probability" that the student
was wearing particular items of clothing, their case must
actually be fairly weak. If this is their only evidence it would
seem the strongest argument they could make is that it is fairly
unlikely any other person would have been wearing those exact
items of clothing. If I were defending this case I would be
arguing that "fairly unlikely" or even "very unlikely" is
incapable of satisfying the requirement to prove guilt beyond
reasonable doubt.
I hope this answer helps.
Regards,
Joseph
PokerStars Support Team
Asi que SI responden todo. Y lo sorprendente fue que se echaron el problema en tiempo record. Como media hora.
Bueno eso es todo... GLHF.
Bonus:
Mi pensamiento sobre el cierre del thread mas fregon del foro + Mostrar spoiler +
Pues bueno, como escribí hace unas entradas, tengo la meta de liberar el primer bono de 50$ para arrancar con toda la actitud el año, deje de jugar como 3 semanas entre otras cosas finales de la uni, y pues me daba hueva cuando tenía tiempo libre.
Entonces esto lo deje descuidado.
Regreso a PS y Boom, rápido hice una FT. Y pues agarre unos deep runs y un buen heater. Y ahora gozo al fin de un BR estable. Con toda la fe XD.
Así que me faltan 9 días y 180 VPP’s jejeje vamos con Tokio.
Pero ps mañana en la mañana tengo que ir al Ortodontista para que me quite los puntos de una cirugía de un pinche diente que salió acostado (Hasta mi dentadura es bien huevona) Y pues tengo la tarde, aunque no sé si me den ganas de grindear bien SNG o abro 4 mesas de NL10 y ya acabo esto rápido.
Por otro lado, realmente le agarre amor a los MTT’s, y acaban de anunciar las TCOOP, y realmente quiero jugarlas, obviamente ningún torneo mayor a 50 dolares, ta bien que traiga racha pero no te mames.
Entonces tengo planeado, diario jugar MTT’s Turbo, desde .10 hasta 5USD. Los mas que pueda. Y buscar artículos y videos, mas que nada videos sobre MTT’s . Realmente quiero aprender a jugarlos de forma optima, y bien.
Ah y feliz navidad. No sean Grinches, salgan con la familia, disfrútenla, esos cabrones siempre estarán para ustedes.
